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Relative to chronic hunger, seasonal hunger in rural and urban areas of Africa is poorly understood. No estimates are compiled, and limited evidence exists on prevalence, causes, and impacts. This paper contributes to the body of evidence by examining the extent and potential drivers of seasonal hunger using panel data from the Malawi Integrated Household Panel Survey (IHPS). Farmers are commonly thought to use various strategies to smooth consumption, including planting “off-season” crops, investing in post-harvest storage technologies, or generally diversifying farm portfolios including livestock products and/or wild crops. Similarly, when markets are available, farmers may diversify through off-farm income sources in order to purchase food in lean seasons. We investigate whether seasonal hunger – distinct from chronic hunger – exists in Malawi, drawing on two waves of panel data from the LSMS-ISA series. We examine the extent of seasonal hunger, factors associated with variation in seasonal hunger, and how recurring and longer-term seasonal hunger might be associated with various household welfare measures. We find that both urban and rural households report experiencing seasonal hunger in the pre-harvest months, with descriptive evidence suggesting male gender, age, and education of household head, livestock ownership, and storage of crops are associated with lower levels of seasonal hunger. In addition, we find that Malawian households with seasonal hunger harvest crops earlier than average – a short-term coping mechanism that can reduce the crop’s yield and nutritional value, possibly perpetuating hunger.
This report provides a general overview of the wheat market in Bangladesh. The first section describes trends in wheat production and consumption over the past twenty years and summarizes recent trade policy related to wheat. The second section presents the findings of a literature review of the wheat value chain in Bangladesh, beginning with seed selection and ending with sales. Finally, wheat consumption in Bangladesh is discussed in more depth, including nutritional information about wheat, substitute grain markets, and projected consumption in 2030. We find that wheat production in Bangladesh has been volatile and continues to reflect significant yield gaps. While wheat consumption has increased, rice is the most important crop and food grain. Increased demand by private traders for higher quality wheat for processing has fueled rising import levels, and the the gap between domestic supply and demand is projected to grow to over 4 million tons by 2030.
Over the past 20 years, global wheat production and consumption have increased significantly. Production has increased 28%, or about 1.3% annually, and consumption has increased about 24%, or 1.1% annually. A small number of countries consistently account for over 90% of the export market, but the import market is more diversified and involves many more countries. Wheat is primarily used for food, seed, and industry; only 20% of wheat production is used for animal feed. This brief provides a global overview of the wheat value chain, but with specific attention to three focus countries: Ethiopia, India (specifically the Bihar region), and Bangladesh. While these three countries currently have a limited impact in the global wheat market, projections of wheat production and demand suggest that over the next 20 years demand in Bangladesh and Ethiopia will increasingly exceed supply, while India will become a net importer by 2030.
This brief provides a general overview of the wheat market in Bihar, in India. The first section describes trends in wheat production and consumption over the past twenty years and summarizes recent trade policy related to wheat. After a brief discussion of the types and nutritional content of wheat, the third section describes the wheat value chain in Bihar, beginning with seed development and ending with marketing. Finally, we highlight a few trends in Bihar wheat markets. We find that the quantity of wheat production in Bihar has exceeded rice production over the past four years, and that in the last two decades, wheat consumption has grown significantly among both urban and rural populations. Climate change and deteriorating land quality, however, may threaten agricultural production in Bihar in the long-term.
In Mozambique, the legacies of colonial rule, socialism and civil war continue to constrain economic growth and agricultural production. Eighty percent of Mozambique’s labor force derives its livelihood from agriculture, but the nation remains a net food importer. The majority of all farmland is cultivated by smallholders whose fertilizer usage and crop yields are among the lowest in Africa. While Mozambique has experienced reasonable economic growth since the end of its civil war in 1992, it remains poor by almost any measure. In this literature review, we examine the state of agriculture in Mozambique, the country’s political history and post-war recovery, and the current fertilizer market. We find evidence that smallholder access to fertilizer in Mozambique is limited by lack of information, affordability, access to credit, a poor business environment, and limited infrastructure. The data demonstrate that increased investment in infrastructure is an important step to improve input and output market access for smallholders. The main government intervention currently impacting smallholder fertilizer use is the Agricultural Sector Public Expenditure Program (PROAGRI) initiative, however, more data is necessary to assess the impact of its policies and programs.
This literature review provides information on the dynamics of the maize market and maize prices in Zambia. We address four key topics: average production costs and breakeven prices for maize farmers in Zambia, main drivers of volatility of maize production volumes, key factors driving the differences between Zambian and global maize prices, and policies that may have contributed to increased farmer productivity.
Farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) use less fertilizer than farmers in any other region in the world. Low fertilizer use is one factor explaining the lag in agricultural productivity growth in Africa. A variety of market interventions to increase fertilizer use have been attempted over the years, with limited success. In the past several decades, Malawi has tried to alter that trend through a variety of innovative programs aimed at achieving national food security through targeted input subsidy programs. The best known of these programs is Malawi’s Starter Pack Programme. The Starter Pack Programme was amended twice into the Targeted Inputs Programme (TIP) and Expanded Targeted Inputs Programme (ETIP), and eventually replaced with the Agricultural Input Subsidy Programme (AISP). The efficiency and equity of the Starter Pack Programme and its successors have been the subject of debate. This report reviews the history, implementation, and perceived effectiveness of the various input subsidy schemes in the context of Malawi’s political economy. We find that AISP is credited with significantly increasing maize yields in Malawi. However, we also find that there are serious challenges facing the most recent input subsidy program, ranging from the rising cost of the subsidy to ongoing implementation struggles related to increased bureaucracy and corruption.
Aflatoxin is a naturally occurring carcinogen produced by the fungus Aspergillus, particularly Aspergillus Flavus and Aspergillus Parasiticus. Aflatoxin contamination places an economic and health burden on farmers throughout the developing world, but reliable prevalence data are difficult to obtain. This report analyzes data from 25 primary research articles published within the last 15 years in order to provide a summary of aflatoxin contamination in the developing world. This report is divided into three parts, roughly aligning with phases of the agricultural value chain. Data for prevalence at the production and processing stage are presented first, followed by data for prevalence during storage, and finally by a summary of data for aflatoxin levels at consumption and point-of sale. We find maize and groundnuts to be the crops most affected by aflatoxin, while Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa are the geographic areas most likely to be affected. Agroecological conditions including warm humid climates, irrigated hot deserts, and droughts contribute to aflatoxin contamination, and we find that contamination can occur throughout the value chain.