Strategic transactions of Colorado River rights could help conserve water and restore fish habitat

Visiting Scholar: Five Questions with Kaisa Pietilä

The Evans School welcomes Kaisa Pietilä as a Fulbright Visiting Scholar for the 2023-24 academic year, where she will work with Professor Craig Thomas. Kaisa is a Senior Research Scientist at the Finnish Environment Institute (Syke) and is completing doctoral studies at Tampere University in Political Science (Environmental Policy). Before starting at Syke, Kaisa received her MPhil in Political Science from the University of Sheffield in England.

As is custom, the Evans School spoke with Kaisa about her research program as she settled into Seattle and Parrington Hall.

Evans: Huge congratulations on your Fulbright fellowship! Your work focuses on global biodiversity governance. How did you become interested in this area of research and policy?

KP: Thanks! My journey to working in and on global biodiversity governance has been a little unusual, as I have grown to be a more nature-y and outdoorsy person over time (currently on my way to becoming a millennial birder). I remember as an undergrad initially being intrigued by the history of conservation and colonialism, and how to me, there seemed to be a disconnect between the past and the more present discourses on sustainable development. I consider the disconnect between political decision-making on biodiversity and apolitical technical discourses and rationales to be at the heart of my research.

Evans: Central to your current work is the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). Describe the work of this Convention and why it is so important to understanding global responses to biodiversity loss.

KP: The CBD is one of the biggest international agreements – more than 190 countries are a member to it, with the significant absence of the US. The key purpose of the Convention is to bring countries together to negotiate and agree on what steps we should be taking to overcome biodiversity loss. In my research, I follow these intergovernmental negotiations and analyze how global biodiversity commitments come to exist. Now is a particularly exciting time for the CBD, as member countries collectively agreed on a new Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework in December 2022 after 5 years of negotiating. The new goals and targets are intended to be met by 2030.

Evans: You are an ethnographer, but you describe yourself as a “practitioner-researcher.” Describe your unique approach to studying the work of nation states around biodiversity governance?

KP: I began my fieldwork as a standard ethnographer in the CBD conferences in 2018, which I attended as an academic observer. After joining Syke, a Finnish governmental research institute, in 2021, my role shifted as I participated in the negotiations as a member of Finland’s national negotiating team. In this role, I was no longer just observing from the sidelines but actively participating as a member of a government delegation. Being a practitioner-researcher is like wearing two hats at the same time!

Evans: What are the most striking findings from your current research program?

KP: I’m not sure whether it is much of a research finding but what certainly makes researching this topic a pleasure is that the people working in global biodiversity governance tend to be friendly, easy-going and of good humor. The latter I cannot emphasize enough – most often, global environmental governance negotiations consist of arguing over word choices and where to put a comma. So, on the negotiation table is simultaneously the fate of the planet and existential crisis of all people, together with some placement of commas.

Evans: In your recent talk at Evans, you noted that smaller nations are at a disadvantage compared to larger nations when working within international institutional structures like the CBD. Explain how these disparities in power and capacity downstream consequence for smaller nations.

KP: The CBD and other intergovernmental agreements, like the UN Climate agreement (UNFCCC), are ideally meant to be universal, applicable and implementable everywhere in the world. In order to achieve such an ideal, it would necessitate that all countries regardless of size or wealth be able to participate in the negotiations equally to influence the outcomes. The ideal and the reality are currently quite far from one another, which is why global environmental commitments are frequently unmet.

Evans: This is critical insight – thanks for sharing your work and ideas! Welcome to Evans and UW!

KP: Thank you! It would be great to connect with more Evans folks during my visit here, don’t hesitate to shoot me an email if you’d like to chat more about any of these topics (kaisa.j.pietila@tuni.fi).

Postdoc Profile: Five Questions with Brian F. O’Neill

Brian F. O’Neill recently joined the Evans School of Public Policy & Governance and the Ocean Nexus Center as a postdoctoral scholar, where he will work with Evans faculty Grant Blume. He received his Ph.D. in Sociology from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and also completed doctoral-level work at l’Université Paris Sorbonne Nouvelle.

The Evans School caught up with Brian to discuss his research around climate change adaptations.

Evans: Thanks for chatting – it is exciting to have you join the Evans School community! Your work focuses on the discourse and practices around climate change adaptation. What are the key questions guiding your research in this area?

Brian: Unquestionably, adaptation to the impacts of climate change is now, and will continue to be, a key issue for societies. The question that I ask in my research, and that I also impart to my students, is: what is the nature of, and underlying interest in, adaptation as we currently observe it? So, my work often problematizes adaptation. Here, we can also think of terms like “greening,” and I have written a lot about the notion of “justice” in this context. I do this work because I want a more adaptative, more just society! However, the issue is that in my investigations, such as into natural gas drilling, seawater desalination, and wind energy, we continue to observe what some scholars have called “maladaptive” practices and policies that result from the complex interplay of social discourse, politics, economic policies, and subjectivities. So, a more just and adaptative society, for me, starts with a critical engagement with these terms, because none of them are stable. And, we should see the bright side in this. For example, while some of my work diagnosed how “environmental justice” has become co-opted in certain climate adaptation debates towards private, middle- and upper-class interests, the instability of “justice,” “adaptation,” “sustainability” also means it is still possible to re-assert their radical potential.

Evans: In your work, you draw upon an impressive range of methodological tools. Explain why it is so important to bring mixed methods strategies to the study of climate adaptations.

Brian: I have worked in different ways on different projects. Sometimes I have used generalized linear models, at other times participant observation and interviewing. Often I use archival and photographic means of data collection. In what was really my first formal investigation, as an undergraduate, I developed and distributed a public opinion survey instrument on natural gas drilling in the heart of what is called “fracking” country. What I realized was that certain quantitative tools are very adept at helping one describe what is happening in the world. Though, as I went through my graduate work, I found myself often drawn to studies that drew from a wide range of data collection techniques, and I became very inspired by the way scholars were trying to both describe and find new modes of explaining why their observations had manifested in the way they did. Thus, the need for combining quantitative and qualitative approaches. And so, if you are interested in the “social life of climate adaptation,” if I can put it that way, you find that we have some general indicators from surveys and polls, but because some of the technologies, like desalination are only now emerging, an ethnographic viewpoint incorporating multiple techniques of data collection provides unique insights that provide a clearer, but also more nuanced, picture of the issues at play.

Evans: You trained in France and have an upcoming research visit to l’École des Ponts Paris Tech (Laboratory for the Study of Technologies, Territories, and Societies) – what kind of work will you pursue during this visit?

Brian: Yes, my connections to France have been very important in my intellectual formation. In fact, one of the things I love about being a transnational scholar is that certain contexts afford different kinds of disciplinary and thematic flexibility. I developed a relationship with the Laboratory for the Study of Technologies, Territories, and Societies (LATTS) over the past couple of years because there were commonalities across the sociologists, but also human geographers, public policy scholars, and socio-economists working there in terms of an interest in problematizing the techno-solutionism/optimism around climate change and infrastructure. So, while I am there this winter, I will be building some relationships for future collaborative work in the Paris area, but also with some colleagues in Montpellier and Grenoble. I also have some ongoing article projects that I will be able to wrap up while I am there that are co-authored with French colleagues. The other big “to do” is to get a few initial chapters reworked for my book project, “Disciplining Waters,” for a university press that is all about the history, but also contemporary politics, of large-scale seawater desalting as a climate adaptive practice.

Evans: Just recently, you published a Comment in Nature Water with Joe Williams? What are the key takeaways from that piece?

Brian: Yes, Joe Williams (Cardiff University) and I have both been writing quite a lot about desalting as a climate adaptive policy. One takeaway is that there is a trend in how many technologies are being framed as “solving” the climate crisis, and desalination is one. But, if we look at that industry, it has yet to have any meaningful dialogue around social questions, about equity, about justice, and about representation. So, the second takeaway is to raise the issue in terms of: how technology is deployed matters. We point to evidence that shows how the industry routinely functions, not as a means to providing equitable, or even universal access under dire conditions, but as a result of servicing the privileged. Better regulations might be one answer, but we also argue that only way climate adaptation works at the moment is through forms of inequality, and so we are trying to recenter the debate to social concerns.

Evans: Share with us your plans for research while a post-doctoral fellow with Ocean Nexus?

Brian: One big plan is to secure a book contract for the “disciplining waters” project. Of course, another is to get the mounting pile of half written manuscripts off my desk and into journals! However, I have begun working with the Ocean Nexus Center’s Yoshi Ota, the Evans School’s Grant Blume, as well as Ocean Nexus colleague Matthew Jerome Schneider on a more long-term investigation into offshore wind politics. Specifically, I have been designing a comparative project with North Carolina and Washington in mind, sites chosen because of their differing, broad political dynamics. Within the scholarship on energy, there is a lot of new work coming out on wind, because it is a real bastion of the Green New Deal. In this new project, we will be looking at possible policy outcomes for labor, working class communities, and a variety of marginalized groups, but also trying to understand the underlying social, political, and economic motivations around wind. I am especially interested in troubling the extent to which wind is assumed to manifest a post-carbon economy. As this is a new issue, we hope to be able to observe these processes for at least the next several years to come. This is all early stages, but Evans has provided a great opportunity for me to develop this work.

Evans: We can’t wait to see how your work unfolds in the coming years – welcome again to the Evans School!

Brian: Thank you!

Student Consulting Lab Project Shapes Wildland Firefighter Compensation Policy Conversation

Recent MPA grads Mohammed Alkhars, David Lu, Sam Perkins, and Evan Pierce are helping shape the conversation around wildland firefighter compensation through their capstone project. Not only have they talked with senate and congressional staffers about the report, it’s been picked up by media outlets including the Guardian, Al Jazeera, Washington Post, and NBC, among quite a few others.

Check out their Student Consulting Lab report.

Alison Cullen helps strengthen EPA Science Advisory Board peer review process

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In the news this past week was the work of the Environmental Protection Agency ‘s Science Advisory Board, which is chaired by the Daniel J. Evans Endowed Professor of Environmental Policy Alison Cullen. Professor Cullen and the Advisory Board have been working with Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Michael Regan of the Biden-Harris Administration to strengthen processes that “restore opportunities for peer review and strengthen the independence of the board,” as it works with the EPA. Of central importance here is the establishment of a Science Advisory Board Working Group led by Professor Cullen that will meet with EPA staff to provide timely expert advice relevant to scientific and technical information guiding EPA policy, rule-making, or enforcement decisions.

Links to the EPA news release related to this can be found here, as well as a news story describing this work. 

A Q&A with Rebeca de Buen Kalman (PhD ’21)

This past summer, Rebeca de Buen Kalman completed her Ph.D. at the Evans School, where she focused on the intersections between environmental policy, climate change policy, transportation, and public health. Evans had a chance to sit down with her for a few minutes to talk about her dissertation research.

Your dissertation project is titled, “Pueblos Bicicleteros: Three Essays on Cycling Policy in Mexican Cities,” but you use the evolution of cycling policy in Mexico as a lens into contemporary urban environmental policy. Explain why cycling policy is so central to how major cities address today’s climate challenges.

Transportation is one of the largest and fastest-growing sources of greenhouse gas emissions globally and thus a critical area for climate mitigation policy. Increasing cycling commutes and trips in cities has the potential to reduce emissions and improve and health. Cycling policy can be especially compelling when it is integrated within a larger transportation strategy combined with transit.

Safety and equity concerns, however, must be present as we rethink transit policies. In the cities I studied, most urban cyclists are low-income workers who mostly cycle out of necessity. Framing a bicycle as “one less car” erases the experiences of these cyclists who might perceive the bicycle as a marker of poverty and whose perspective and needs are usually left out of cycling plans.

Why do you think cities in Mexico, as well as in the U.S. and in other places around the globe, struggle to better incorporate cycling within urban transportation strategies?

There are many reasons why incorporating cycling into transportation can be tricky in cities where low cycling rates are the status quo. Most barriers revolve around our current model of mobility, or ‘automobility’, which is centered around the cars and car-centric culture. In most cities, public policies, public spending, and regulations related to street design have historically favored car mobility at the expense of other modes like transit, walking, and cycling, which further entrenches car-centric life-styles. In many places, like the cities I studied in Mexico, some people associate cycling with low economic status and cars with progress and social mobility. Another common cultural barrier relates to society’s tendency to consider bikes as toys or means of recreation, rather than part of the transportation system.

While there are a lot of barriers, there is also a growing appetite from some sectors of the population to move towards multimodal lifestyles that include cycling. Evidence from travel-behavior data reveals an opportunity to reduce car use and substitute cycling for short trips, especially in core urban areas. There also is mounting evidence that younger generations are more environmentally conscious and inclined toward shared and multi-modal transportation when these are available.

We also might not think of cycling policy as a critical element of tackling inequality in modern cities. How does your dissertation show this is anything but the case?

The relationship between cycling and equity is not straightforward. Cycling policy can absolutely be a tool to tackle inequality, but bicycles and cycling policy are not inherently equitable. Bikes are a low-cost and efficient form of getting around in a city. In urban areas like the ones I studied in my dissertation, roughly one-fifth of trips are done by car but the vast majority of public funds for mobility are invested in car infrastructure. Improving cycling conditions through a variety of measures can be a way to improve people’s access to services and opportunities at a very low cost. Improving cycling conditions can also have benefits to pedestrians through improved street design, with important equity implications since riders from vulnerable communities are more likely to be hit by cars as pedestrians.

Measures that are meant to improve cycling conditions, however, are often implemented in visible central city areas and not necessarily accessible to lower-income people who might benefit the most from them. Cycling lanes are frequently implemented on sidewalks or at the expense of sidewalks, limiting pedestrian mobility and accessibility. Sometimes cycling-related policy can even further marginalize cyclists since cycling infrastructure is often determined once motor traffic needs have been prioritized, without addressing the fundamental asymmetry of power that makes cycling unattractive or unsafe.

Readers will be impressed with your research design, which involved the integration of many different data from many different parts of Mexico. How might environmental policy scholars use mixed methods designs to better inform policymaking?

The development of any project related to the built environment is situated in a complex web of actors, institutions, and social processes, where data is often scarce and disperse. I think that mixed methods are crucial for understanding these types of social phenomena. In my dissertation, I studied the trajectories of ten mid-sized and large cities who have implemented cycling infrastructure to different extents. I also took a deep dive into the local social movements that have sparked the adoption of cycling related policies. I used various qualitative and quantitative methods that leverage diverse data sources, including open source and crowdsourced transportation data on infrastructure and travel, administrative data, policy documents, and interview data.

The questions I asked in my dissertation were oriented towards understanding processes and mechanisms rather than questions of cause and effect. To have a full story on each of my cases and parameters that could be compared systematically in my analysis, I had to draw from a variety of sources. I also needed to be through for purposes of validation and triangulation.

Considering the bigger picture, in public policy and management, we ask cause and effect questions because we want to know how interventions impact our desired outcome. But we also need to know how to get things done, the mechanisms at play, and the nuances involved. There is an implementation process between a policy and its effect that requires organizations, institutions, and people. Policy and management are also contextual. We need to draw on various methods to situate ourselves to understand the nuances of public problems and potential policy solutions. Mixed methods are therefore a powerful tool for policy research to become more relevant to policymaking and implementation.

Tell us what you’ll be doing next for your next project at the Evans School.

I am a postdoctoral fellow for Ocean Nexus at the UW EarthLab and the Evans School. Ocean Nexus is an international network of ocean governance scholars based at the UW. Our team at the Evans School works with network members to develop applied policy analysis with an explicit focus on social equity. We are developing a framework to guide the operationalization of equity in ocean governance-related policy analysis through this process. We are also studying how policy problems are discussed in ocean governance research to identify gaps that reduce the applied impact of policy research in this field. Our ultimate goals are to help ocean governance scholars make their research more policy relevant and bring equity to the forefront of policy analysis.

Learn more about people mentioned in this post

Managing Future Risk of Increasing Simultaneous Megafires

This research effort tackles the challenges that simultaneous megafires currently pose to decision makers and stakeholders, and supports proactive planning for future scenarios to mitigate risk (NSF Growing Convergence Research #2019762). Megafires are fires that are unusually large or that require a complex and aggressive firefighting response because of dramatic threats to lives, property, and/or infrastructure. When multiple megafires occur simultaneously, firefighting resources may be strained beyond capacity with catastrophic results. To successfully advance the frontiers of fire science and management to mitigate risk at the intersection of natural and human systems, we are developing a highly convergent approach in a team comprised of researchers from University of Washington, NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research), and University of California, Merced. We bring expertise in decision science, climate science, statistics, and fire science to our collaboration with on the ground decision makers including fire managers, fire ecologists, and land managers for tribal and US government agencies.

We aim to strengthen risk management related to wildfire impacts with improved climate projections in support of decisions regarding land use, fuel and land management, and wildfire suppression, thereby helping to safeguard against the future loss of life, property, infrastructure, and natural resources.

Please contact Alison Cullen alison@uw.edu with questions or to inquire about partnership opportunities.

Data Visualizations

Publications

Peer Reviewed:

1. Cullen AC, Goldgeier B, Abatzoglou JT, Belval E (2024) Characterising ignition precursors associated with high levels of deployment of wildland fire personnel. International Journal of Wildland Fire 33, WF23182.
2. McGinnis, S., Kessenich, L., Mearns, L., Cullen, A., Podschwit, H., & Bukovsky, M. (2023). Future regional increases in simultaneous large Western USA wildfires. International Journal Of Wildland Fire, 32, 1304-1314.
3. Kolden, C. A., Abatzoglou, J. T., Jones, M. W., & Jain, P. (2024). Wildfires in 2023. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 5(4), 238–240.
4. Swain, D. L., Abatzoglou, J. T., Kolden, C., Shive, K., Kalashnikov, D. A., Singh, D., & Smith, E. (2023). Climate change is narrowing and shifting prescribed fire windows in western United States. Communications Earth & Environment, 4(1), 340.
5. Humphrey R, Saltenberger J, Abatzoglou J, Cullen A, 2024, Near-term fire weather forecasting in the Pacific Northwest using 500-hPa map types, International Journal of Wildland Fire, 33(5). Winner of the William M. Zumeta Doctoral Research Award 2024 University of Washington.
6. Stoof, C.R., de Vries, J.R., Ribau, M.C., Fernandez, M.F., Flores, D., Villamar, J.G., Kettridge, N., Lartey, D., Moore, P.F., Thacker, F.N., Prichard, S.J., Tersmette, P., Tuljtel, S., Verhaar, I., and Fernandes, P.M. 2024. Megafire: An ambiguous and emotive term best avoided by science. Global Ecology and Biogeography 33: 341-351.
7. Bloem S, Cullen AC, Abatzoglou JT, Mearns LO, Belval E, 2024, Drivers of international fire management personnel deployed to the United States, International Journal of Wildland Fire, WF23093.
8. Skinner H, Prichard SJ, Cullen AC, 2024, Decision Support for Landscapes with High Fire Hazard and Competing Values at Risk: The Upper Wenatchee Pilot Project, Fire 2024, 7(3), 77
9. Abatzoglou JT, McEvoy DJ, Nauslar NJ, Hegewisch KC, Huntington JL (2023) Downscaled subseasonal fire danger forecast skill across the contiguous United States, Atmospheric Science Letters.
10. McGinnis S, Kessenich L, Mearns L, Cullen A, Podschwit H, Bukovsky M (2023) Future regional increases in simultaneous large Western USA wildfires, International Journal of Wildland Fire (2023).
11. Abatzoglou, J. T., Kolden, C. A., Williams, A. P., Sadegh, M., Balch, J. K., & Hall, A. (2023). Downslope wind-driven fires in the western United States. Earth’s Future, 11, e2022EF003471.
12. Cullen AC, Prichard SJ, Abatzoglou JT, Dolk A, Kessenich L, Bloem S, Bukovsky MS, Humphrey R, McGinnis S, Skinner H, Mearns LO. Growing convergence research: Coproducing climate projections to inform proactive decisions for managing simultaneous wildfire risk, Risk Analysis (2023).
13. Kalashnikov DA, Abatzoglou JT, Nauslar NJ, Swain DL, Touma D, and Singh D. (2022) Meteorological and geographical factors associated with dry lightning in central and northern California Environ Res: Climate
14. D’Evelyn, S., Jung, J., Alvarado, E., Baumgartner, J., Caligiuri, P. Hagmann, K., Henderson, S., Hessburg, P., Hopkins, S., Kasner, E., Krawchuk, M., Krenz, J., Lydersen, J., Marlier, M., Masuda, Y., Metlen, K., Mittelstaedt, G., Prichard, S., Schollaert, C., Spector, J. (2022). Wildfire, smoke exposure, human health, and environmental justice need to be integrated into forest restoration and management. Current Environmental Health Reports. 9: 1-20. 10.1007/s40572-022-00355-7.
15. Bloem S, Cullen A, Mearns L, Abatzoglou J, 2022, “The role of international resource sharing arrangements in managing fire in the face of climate change, Fire, 5(4), 88.
16. Hawkins LR, Abatzoglou JT, Li S, Rupp DE. (2022) “Anthropogenic influence on recent severe autumn fire weather in the west coast of the United States” Geophysical Research Letters 48(8).
17. Gaines W, Hessburg P, Aplet G, Henson P, Prichard S, Churchill D, Jones G, Isaac DJ, and Vynne, C. (2022) “Climate change and the Northwest Forest Plan: managing for dynamic landscapes.” Forest Ecology and Management 504: 119794.
18. Jain, P, Castellanos-Acuna, D, Coogan, SCP., Abatzoglou, JT & Flannigan, MD “Observed increases in extreme fire weather driven by atmospheric humidity and temperature.” (2021). Nat. Clim. Chang. doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01224-1.
19. Abatzoglou, JT, Battisti, DS, Williams, AP et al. “Projected increases in western US forest fire despite growing fuel constraints.” (2021). Commun Earth Environ 2, 227.
20. Abatzoglou, JT, Cullen, AC and Prichard, S, Synchronous fires and fire danger challenge US capacity to respond, The Climate Circulator, September 29, 2021.
21. Prichard SJ, Hessburg PF, Hagmann RK, Dobrowski S, Povak NA, Hurteau MD, Kane VR, Keane RE, Kobziar LN, Kolden CA, North M, Parks SA, Safford HD, Stevens JT, Yocom LL, Churchill DJ, Gray RW, Huffman DW, Lake FK, and Khatri-Chhetri P. (2021). “Adapting western North American forests to climate change and wildfires: ten common questions” Invited feature. Ecological Applications.
22. Abatzoglou JT, Rupp DE, O’Neill LW and Sadegh M. (2021). “Compound Extremes Drive the Western Oregon Wildfires of September 2020” Geophysical Research Letters 48(8).
23. Abatzoglou JT, Juang CS, Williams AP, Kolden CA and LeRoy Westerling A. (2021). “Increasing synchronous fire danger in forests of the western United States” Geophysical Research Letters 48(2).
24. Cullen AC, Axe T and Podschwit H. (2020) “High-severity wildfire potential – associating meteorology, climate, resource demand and wildfire activity with preparedness levels” International Journal of Wildland Fire 30(1):30-41.
25. Higuera PE and Abatzoglou JT. (2020). “Record-setting climate enabled the extraordinary 2020 fire season in the western United States” Global Change Biology 27(1):1–2.

Book Chapter

Ostrander, Madeline. (Upcoming in 2022). At Home on an Unruly Planet: Finding Refuge on a Changed Earth. Henry Holt and Co. ISBN 9781250620514.

Web Application

burn_viz is a web application that allows users to visualize relationships between wildfire occurrence, the location of human populations, and different landcover types. Understanding these relationships is crucial for risk assessment and policymaking, but it can be challenging to navigate data from disparate sources that may be provided in different formats and spatial resolutions. Integrating these elements into a interactive visualization creates an opportunity to explore how wildfire, population, and landcover interact over space and time.

White Paper

Dickinson, MB, Abatzoglou JT, Cullen AC, Fillmore S, Fischer P, French N, Hessburg P, Hogland S, Lake F, Linn R, McCaffrey S, Prichard S, Rinkleff PG. Translational Science to Support Wildfire Management for Cultural and Ecological Benefit (2022, prepared for the Joint Fire Science Program, US Forest Service).

Story Maps

Prescribed versus Wildfire Smoke Emissions Tradeoffs Analysis

Research Goals, Questions, Hypotheses

Our overall research goal is to understand current and future wildfire characteristics to support fire-related decisions throughout the 21st century in the face of resultant suppression resource scarcity and competition in the US. This project will model future patterns and uncertainty in the simultaneous co-occurrence of megafire events to inform risk management.

 Research Questions:

How will climate change alter future patterns of wildfire, particularly co-occurring megafires?
What implications does this hold for risk management decisions?

We are developing statistical models to represent relationships between biogeophysical and human factors (e.g., ignitions, suppression policy, land and fuel management) and firefighting resource demand at geographical scales relevant to firefighting management decision-making. These resource demand and risk management models will be based on wildfire characteristics, climate, weather, and land history covariates. We are evaluating climate change impacts on ignition patterns and on wildfire risk with regional climate model projections from NA-CORDEX, and observations from the gridMET dataset, by looking at fire danger indices in concert with projected spatiotemporal patterns in anthropogenic activities associated with human-caused fires, as well as diagnostics for lightning activity.

Hypotheses:

We hypothesize that ignition efficiency will increase further with warming, facilitating increased lightning-ignitions, and consequently increases in simultaneous wildfire events.
We hypothesize that a positive feedback may occur where fire suppression resources at the national level become strained, reducing the efficacy of managing active fires and new ignitions, and further increasing resource strain and relative burned area.
We hypothesize that short term fire management decisions (e.g., both fuel management and fire suppression) have significant delayed impacts, and demand innovative scientifically supported decision tools that explicitly account for climate change and the continuing interaction of natural and human systems.

Project Team

Alison Cullen, PI, Daniel J. Evans Endowed Professor of Environmental Policy, Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Washington, Seattle WA.

John Abatzoglou, Co-PI, Associate Professor, University of California Merced, Merced, CA.

Seth McGinnis, Co-PI, Associate Scientist IV, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO.

Susan Prichard, Co-PI, Senior Research Scientist, School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA.

Sunniva Bloem, Research Assistant, PhD student, Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Washington, Seattle, WA.

Nick Bradbury, Research Assistant, MPA student, Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Washington, Seattle, WA.

Yu-Chen Chu, Research Assistant, PhD student, Urban Design and Planning, University of Washington, Seattle, WA.

Reed Humphrey, Research Assistant, PhD student, Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Washington, Seattle, WA.

Anna Kenig-Ziesler, Research Assistant, PhD student, Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Washington, Seattle, WA.

Lee Kessenich, Associate Scientist I, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO.

Rachel McCrary, Project Scientist II, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO.

Linda Mearns, Senior Scientist, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO.

Mark Nepf, Research Assistant, PhD student, Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Washington, Seattle, WA

Cory Struthers, Assistant Professor, Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Washington, Seattle, WA

Ashwin Thomas, Research Assistant, PhD student, Environmental Systems, University of California Merced, Merced, CA.

Graduates

Harry Podschwit, School of Environmental and Forestry Science, University of Washington, Seattle, WA (PhD, 2020).

Alex Dolk, School of Forest and Environmental Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA (MS, 2021; MPA, 2021).

Marie Higinbotham, Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Washington, Seattle, WA (MPA 2022).

Emily Stephens, Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Washington, Seattle, WA (MPA 2022).

Mohamed Alkhars, Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Washington, Seattle, WA (MPA 2023).

Brian Goldgeier, Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Washington, Seattle, WA (MPA 2023).

David Lu, Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Washington, Seattle, WA (MPA 2023).

Sam Perkins, Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Washington, Seattle, WA (MPA 2023).

Evan Pierce, Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Washington, Seattle, WA (MPA 2023).

Haley Skinner, Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Washington, Seattle, WA (MPA 2023).

Presentations

Graduate Student Academic Defenses

Dolk, Alex. (MS/MPA 2021). Where There’s Fire, There’s Smoke: Examining Population Exposure to PM2.5 from Prescribed Burning in Northeastern Washington. Concurrent Master’s Thesis. Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA.

Podschwit, Harry. (PhD, 2021). Accounting for model uncertainties in statistical forecasts of wildfire parameters. Doctoral Dissertation. School of Environmental And Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA.

Stephens, Emily. (MPA, 2022). Winner of the Environmental Policy & Management Research Prize, All Lands, All Plans: Regional and Forest-Level Planning and Coordination in Eastern Washington Forests. Masters Degree Capstone, Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Washington.

Higinbotham, Marie (MPA 2022). Incorporating Equity into Capital Planning and Decision-Making. Masters Degree Capstone. Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Washington, Seattle, WA.

Goldgeier, Brian (MPA 2023). Winner of Masters Capstone Justice and Diversity Research Prize, Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Washington, Seattle, WA.

Skinner, Haley (MPA 2023). Winner of Masters Capstone International Development Research Prize. Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Washington, Seattle, WA.

Perkins, Sam; Pierce, Evan; Alkhars, Mohamed; Lu, David (MPA 2023). Masters Team Capstone Project with USDA Forest Service on Addressing Disparities in Wildland Firefighter Compensation. Evans School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Washington, Seattle, WA.

Conference Presentations

“Projected changes in inter-regional simultaneity of megafires in the Western US based on NA-CORDEX regional climate simulations.” (Seth McGinnis, Lee Kessenich, Linda Mearns, Melissa Bukovsky, Alison Cullen). 2023 Wildfire Risk Management Science Weekly Series, Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service. Virtual, July 27, 2023.

“Co-producing Actionable Climate Science for Wildland Fire Operations and Policy.” (Lee Kessenich, Melissa Bukovsky, Seth McGinnis, Linda Mearns, Alison Cullen, John Abatzoglou). 28th Annual CESM Workshop, Boulder, CO. 12 June 2023.

“Reimagining fire-adapted forests: place-based adaptation strategies for western landscapes” (Susan Prichard) Opening plenary talk for the Cross-boundary Workshop. Southwest Chapter for the Society for Ecological Restoration. Fort Collins, CO. 2 May 2023.

“A Multi-Index Examination of Future Fire Season Length and Severity over the United States.” (Lee Kessenich, Melissa Bukovsky, Seth McGinnis, Linda Mearns, John Abatzoglou, Alison Cullen). AMS 14th Fire and Fire Meteorology Symposium, virtual, 3 May 2023.

“Fire Weather Forecasting in the Pacific Northwest using 500mb Map Types.” (Reed Humphrey, John Saltenberger, John Abatzoglou, and Alison Cullen). AMS Fire and Forest Meteorology Symposium, Minneapolis MN, 4 May 2023.

” A Multi-Index Examination of Future Fire Season Length and Severity over the United States” (Melissa Bukovsky, Lee Kessenich, Seth McGinnis, Linda Mearns, John Abatzoglou, and Alison Cullen) EGU General Assembly, Vienna, Austria, April 2023.

“Projected Changes in Inter-Regional Simultaneity of Megafires in the Western US Based on NA-CORDEX Regional Climate Simulations” (Seth McGinnis, Lee Kessenich, Linda Mearns, Melissa S Bukovsky, Alison Cullen). AMS Annual Meeting, Denver, CO. January 2023.

“Climate change adaptation and proactive fuel reduction treatments.” (Susan Prichard) Wildfire Resilience Summit, Jackson, WY. 28 September 2022.

“Upper Wenatchee Pilot Project Workshop” (Haley Skinner, Susan Prichard, Alison Cullen), University of Washington (online) 15 November 2022.

“A Multi-Index Examination of Future Fire Season Length and Severity Over the United States.” (Melissa S Bukovsky, Lee Kessenich, Seth McGinnis, Linda Mearns, John Abatzoglou, Alison Cullen). AGU Fall Meeting, Chicago, IL. 16 Dec 2022.

“International Cooperation for Managing Wildfire Risk” (Sunniva Bloem, Alison Cullen, Linda Mearns, John Abatzoglou), Society for Risk Analysis, Annual Meeting, Tampa FL, December 2022.

“Fire Weather Forecasting in the Pacific Northwest” (Reed Humphrey, John Saltenberger, John Abatzoglou, Seth McGinnis, Alison Cullen) Society for Risk Analysis, Annual Meeting, Tampa FL, December 2022.

“Risk Management through Megafire Response” (Alison Cullen, Erin Belval, Haley Skinner, Brian Goldgeier, Sunniva Bloem, John Abatzoglou), Society for Risk Analysis, Annual Meeting, Tampa FL, December 2022.

“Growing Convergence Research: Co-producing Climate Projection Information for Managing Risk from Simultaneous Wildfires” (Alison Cullen, Reed Humphrey, Lee Kessenich, Seth McGinnis, John Abatzoglou), Society for Risk Analysis, Annual Meeting, Tampa FL, December 2022.

“Drivers of lightning-ignition efficiency in California forests.” (Ashwin Thomas). 2022 Yosemite Hydroclimate Meeting, Yosemite National Park. October 13, 2022.

“Taming fire: panel on climate change and wildfires” (Don Hankins, Susan Prichard) Aspen Ideas Festival, Aspen, CO. June 29, 2022.

“Western wildfires – adapting to a future with more fire” (Susan Prichard) University of Washington Botanical Gardens Plenary, March 2, 2022. [online]

“Where there’s fire, there’s smoke: Examining Population Exposure to PM2.5 from Prescribed Burning in Northeastern Washington.” (Ernesto Alvarado, Alison Cullen, Alex Dolk). International Association of Wildland Fire & Climate Conference, Pasadena, CA. May 2022.

“Future changes in Simultaneous Megafire projected by NA-CORDEX” (Melissa Bukovsky) European Geophysical Union. Vienna. May 2022

“Drivers of lightning-ignition efficiency in California forests.” (Ashwin Thomas). International Association of Wildland Fire Conference: Fire & Climate 2022, Pasadena, CA. May 2022.

“Multimodel Uncertainty in Projected Changes of Simultaneous Megafires in the Great Basin Based on NA-CORDEX Regional Climate Simulations.” (Seth McGinnis, Lee Kessenich, Harry Podschwit, Linda Mearns, Melissa Bukovsky, and Alison Cullen). AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans LA. December 2021.

“Managing Future Fire Risk – an NSF Growing Convergence Research Project.” (Alison Cullen). Society for Risk Analysis 2021 Annual Meeting. December 2021.

“The role of international resource sharing arrangements in wildfire risk management in the face of climate change.” (Sunniva Bloem). Society for Risk Analysis 2021 Annual Meeting. December 2021.

“Symposium: Managing and Reducing the Risk of wildfire through Response and Fuel Treatment.” (Alison Cullen). Society for Risk Analysis 2021 Annual Meeting. December 2021.

“Projected Effects of Climate Change on Simultaneous North American Megafires Based on NA-CORDEX Regional Climate Simulations.” (Seth McGinnis, Harry Podschwit, Lee Kessenich, Linda Mearns, and Alison Cullen) GC081-07, 2020 Fall Meeting, American Geophysical Union, December 2020 https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm20/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/687152

“Managing Future Risk of Increasing Simultaneous Megafires” (Alison Cullen, Harry Podschwit, Linda Mearns, John Abatzoglou, Seth McGinnis, Melissa Bukovsky, Susan Prichard) Society for Risk Analysis 2020 Annual Meeting, December 2020.

Workshops

UW Evans School Capstone Presentation and Workshop May 2023

Upper Wenatchee Pilot Project Decision Analysis, Stakeholder Workshop, Autumn 2022.

NSF Growing Convergence Research Managing Future Risk of Simultaneous Wildfire. Stakeholder Workshop. April 2021.

NSF Growing Convergence Research Managing Future Risk of Simultaneous Wildfire.” Stakeholder Workshop. June 2021.

Convergence Workshop on Simultaneous Fires, Stakeholder Focus Group, Association for Fire Ecology. November 2021.

Webinars, Seminars, and Podcasts

“Rekindling our Relationship with Wildfire” Climate One Podcast(Susan Prichard) June 7, 2024

“Invited briefing to White House staff on climate change and wildfires” (Susan Prichard). June 29, 2023

“Climate and wildfires in western North America: a case for proactive management” (Susan Prichard) Environmental Science Speaker Series, Western Washington University. May 18, 2023.

“GCR 2023: Lessons from the Field” (Alison Cullen) NSF Growing Convergence Research Program, April 6 2023.

“Overview of the 10 Common Questions paper” (Susan Prichard) Meeting with Okanogan Wenatchee National Forest Late Successional Reserve Working Group. April 4, 2023.

“Adapting western forests to climate change and wildfires” (Susan Prichard) Southwest Fire Science Consortium Webinar. January 31, 2023.

“Public webinar: Adapting western forests to climate change and wildfires.” (Susan Prichard and Keala Hagmann) September 9, 2022.

“CALFIRE executives webinar: Adapting western forests to climate change and wildfires.” (Susan Prichard and Keala Hagmann) September 1, 2022.

“Burning Issues: Wildfires” Podcast. (Alison Cullen). Burning Issues. University of Chicago. June 2022.

“Western wildfires – adapting to a future with more fire.” (Susan Prichard) Rotary District 5060 Environmental Sustainability Committee. June 16, 2022. [online]

“Landscape fuel treatments and wildland fire management strategies within recent large fire events of north-central Washington State”(Susan Prichard) Missoula Fire Science Lecture Series. April 28, 2022. [online]

“Landscape fuel treatments and wildland fire management strategies within recent large fire events” (Prichard, S., Povak, N., Lemons, R., and Griffey, V.) Northwest Fire Science Consortium Webinar. November 18, 2021.

“Climate change and the risk of Western fire activity.” (John Abatzoglou). IBHS Disaster Dynamics Academy, March 2022.

“Climate Change and Simultaneous Megafires in the Western US.” (Seth McGinnis). Presentation, CGD Seminar, Boulder CO, 1 March 2022. Online: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tt9HnbMjv9o.

“Climate change adaptation for western forests, watersheds, and communities.” (Susan Prichard). FEMA Region 10 Regional Interagency Steering Committee (RISC) Meeting. March 2022.

“Climate change impacts on demand for emergency resources.” (Reed Humphrey). FEMA Region 10 Regional Interagency Steering Committee (RISC) Meeting. March 2022.

“Western wildfires – adapting to a future with more fire.” (Susan Prichard). University of Washington Botanical Gardens, Seattle, WA, March 2, 2022.

“Common questions about adaptive forest management.” (Susan Prichard). Guest lecture, Environmental and Resource Management 101: Forests and Society. February 2022.

“Managing Future Risk of Increasing Simultaneous Megafires” (Melissa Bukovsky), National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Lab, December 2021.

“Landscape fuel treatments and wildland fire management strategies within recent large fire events.” (Susan Prichard, N Povak, R Lemons, V Griffey). Northwest Fire Science Consortium Webinar. November 18, 2021.

“Climate driven fire hazards: knowledge and limitations.” (John Abatzoglou). Bureau of Meteorology Annual Conference, Melbourne Australia (remote), November 2021.

“Common questions about adaptive forest management.” (Susan Prichard). Society of American Foresters, Washington Chapter. Webinar, November 11, 2021.

“Wildfire Smoke Engagement Workshop: Fire Ecology.” (Susan Prichard). SNAPP wildfire smoke engagement workshop Okanogan, WA, November 8, 2021.

“Common questions about adaptive forest management.” (Susan Prichard, P Hessburg, K Hagmann). UW School of Environmental and Forest Sciences Fall Seminar Series, October 28, 2021.

“The rise of fire in the Western United States: drives, impacts, and solutions” (John Abatzoglou). National Academies of Engineers, Sep 2021

“Climate Challenges for Wildland Fire Management” (John Abatzoglou). University of California Wildfire Symposium Series, Aug 2021

Colorado Congressional Forum on Wildfire and Extreme Climate, Rep. Joe Neguse, Linda Mearns, discussant, Highlands Institute Boulder, August 2021.

“Compound Extremes Drive the Western Oregon Wildfires of September 2020” (John Abatzoglou) Pacific Northwest Drought Early Warning System webinar series, June 2021.

“Wildfire Risk Management and Decision Analytic Approaches” (Alison Cullen) Research Highlights, Evans School, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, March 19, 2021.

“Climate Change Impacts in Colorado” (Melissa Bukovsky) Protect Our Winters, Colorado Chapter. January 2021.

“Climate information for fire management in SW Forests” (John Abatzoglou) Fire Science & Management in an Uncertain Future webinar series, December 2020.

“Wildfires and Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest.” (Susan Prichard) Association of Women in Science – Seattle Chapter. December 2020.

“Climate change and the risk of Western fire activity, Wildfires, Litigation, and What Science Can Tell Us” (John Abatzoglou) National Judicial College webinar, October 2020.

“Fuel Treatments and Megafires: lessons from the large fires in north-central WA” (Susan Prichard) University of California Fire Science Seminar Series. October 2020.

“Why are wildfires increasing in the Pacific Northwest?” (Susan Prichard) Washington on Fire Seminar, Washington State University Graduate and Professional Student Science Policy Initiative. October 2020.

“Wildfire Risk Management: Future Trends and Impact on Decision Making” (Alison Cullen) Cascadia Wildfire and Urban Smoke Webinar, Seattle, WA, 2020.

Policy Messages

Climate Projections and Simultaneous Wildfires

Fire weather meteorologists can make better near-term predictions of the number of daily ignitions and the occurrence of large wildfires if they take into consideration synoptic-scale weather patterns (Humphrey et al. under revision, 2024).
Unless we take steps to address the situation – most of the Western US is projected to see numbers of simultaneous, 1000+ acre fires that historically occurred once every ten years happening once every five years – or even more frequently (McGinnis et al., 2022).
In the US, the median number of large fires (i.e., greater than the historic 75th percentile) occurring simultaneously from July to September was about 3 times higher in 2010-2019 than it was in 1984-1993 (Podschwit and Cullen, 2020; Cullen et al., 2023).
During the month of peak fire intensity in the US, the number of large fires (i.e., greater than the historic 75th percentile) occurring simultaneously was twice as high in 2010-2019 as it was in 1984-1993 (Podschwit and Cullen, 2020; Cullen et al, 2023).
In Alaska, the average number of large fires (i.e., greater than the historic 75th percentile) during peak fire activity months approximately doubled in 2002-2019 compared to 1984-2001. In the Northwest US, the average number of large fires during peak fire activity months increased almost 30% between these two periods (Cullen et al, 2023).
In the Northern Rockies region, conditions of more than 35 simultaneous wildfires 1000+ acres in size, which historically occurred once per decade, are projected to occur on average every two years by the end of this century (McGinnis et al., 2022).

Preparing for Future Wildfire Seasons – Resource Preparedness

Federal firefighters are earning up to 50% less per month than state firefighters in four western states, despite spending more time on the job. This pay gap poses a substantial barrier to hiring and retaining firefighters for federal roles, which has been reflected in a large percentage of open positions in some locations. (Alkhars et al. 2023)
As periods of co-occurring wildfire increasingly overlap across US regions, competition for suppression resources has been increasing, a trend which is expected to continue and intensify. (Podschwit and Cullen, 2020; Cullen et al., 2020).
The current capacity, in terms of hiring, staffing and preparing, of fire operations organizations is insufficient for responding effectively in the coming decades given the projected number and intensity of impactful fires. (Podschwit and Cullen, 2020; Cullen et al., 2020).
In the Western US, the season during which wildfires compete for suppression resources is projected to begin 2-4 weeks earlier and end 2 weeks later in 2040-2070 than it did during 1980-2010. Overall, wildfire season length will increase by 4-6 weeks. (McGinnis et al, 2022).
In 2021, the US national preparedness level reached its maximum (PL=5) at the earliest point in the year ever recorded, 14 July, indicating that suppression resources were already fully committed in response to simultaneous active fires at that date. (Abatzoglou et al., 2021).
With increasing intensity of wildfire seasons, national resources will be subject to ever higher levels of competition, necessitating increased reliance on international resource-sharing relationships. (Bloem et al., 2022).

Proactive Forest Management (Mitigating fire risk under climate change)

Fire management in the US must become proactive rather than reactive in the face of the lengthening of the simultaneous wildfire season by several weeks, alongside a notable increase in the risk of extreme fire weather.
In recent decades, increased area burned by western wildfires has been associated with uncharacteristically large patches of high-severity, stand-replacing fire. (Parks and Abatzoglou 2020, Hagmann et al. 2021).
Because high-severity fire events can be catalysts for vegetation change, trends in large wildfires and burn severity have implications for rapid ecosystem shifts and declines in valued resources. (Kemp et al. 2019, Stevens-Rumann and Morgan 2019, Coop et al. 2020).
Combining western science and Indigenous knowledge systems is foundational to intentionally restoring and adapting western forest ecosystems (Kimmerer and Lake 2001, Lake et al. 2017, Roos et al. 2021).” (Prichard et al. 2021)
Adaptive management is a learning-by-doing method of responding to ecosystem changes, informed by effectiveness monitoring. (Lyons et al. 2008, Larson et al. 2013b).
Restoring open forest structure and composition, favoring larger tree sizes, and reducing surface fuels can effectively mitigate future wildfire severity in dry, fire-prone forests, including oak and pine woodland and semi-arid mixed conifer forests of the western US.
Despite calls to restore fire as a cultural and ecological process (e.g., The U.S. National Wildland Fire Cohesive Strategy), the dominant approach to wildfire management continues to be aggressive suppression. (Prichard et al. 2021)
Under active fire suppression, forest infilling and fuel accumulation predisposes forests to high-severity fire when fire inevitably returns to the locations where it has been previously suppressed. (North et al. 2015b)

Press Coverage

Press/Coverage

Wildfire Series 3 explain how climate change makes wildfire seasons worse Project Optimist April 2024.

How years of fighting every wildfire helped fuel the Western megafires of today FreeThink.com, Jun 4, 2023

Talking Points: The health risks from Minnesota’s hazy skies, CBS News Minnesota, June 21, 2023

California is seeing more days of fire weather. Map shows areas with biggest spikes. San Francisco Chronicle, May 24, 2023

Western organizations push back on lawsuit seeking to restrict aerial fire retardant use. Northwest Public Broadcasting, Mar 15, 2023

Does Thinning Work for Wildfire Prevention. High Country News. February 2023.

In the Northwest and beyond, mature and old-growth trees remain under threat in spite of Biden’s move to protect them, InvestigateWest. September 2022.

Fire danger escalating in Northern California as McKinney blaze erupts, Washington Post. July 30, 2022.

August is coming. Prepare for climate calamity, Los Angeles Times. July 28, 2022.

Prescribed fires: Why they’re still trusted despite runaway blaze, Christian Science Monitor. July 19, 2022.

Climate change: wildfire risk has grown nearly everywhere – but we can still influence where and how fires strike, The Conversation. June 30, 2022.

Americans Don’t Trust one of the Best Methods to Control Wildfires, TIME. May 2022.

Briefing with President Biden – climate crisis and Executive Order strengthening America’s forests, boosting wildfire resilience, and combating global deforestation. April 2022.

The Return of Intentional Forest Fires: Scientists look to Indigenous practices, Bioscience. March 17, 2022.

Western US’s Worst Drought in 1,200 Years Brings Year-Long Fire Season, Truthout. 13 March 13, 2022.

‘In wildfire ‘pivot’ experts question federal focus,’ Roll Call. January 28, 2022.

For Forest Blazes Grown Wilder, an Alternative: The ‘Good Fire,’ Undark. October 25, 2021.

Local fire ecologist addresses forest management debate, Methow Valley News. September 1, 2021.

Experts call for expanded wildfire prevention tactics as fire seasons become more extreme, Yakima Herald-Republic. September 7, 2021.

An Update on This Year’s Wildfires: It’s Bad! The Stranger. August 26, 2021.

Wildfires grow worldwide as climate sizzles, Associated Press. August 13, 2021.

Forest management not so clear cut, Street Roots. August 17, 2021.

Wildfires: How are they linked to climate change? BBC. August 11, 2021.

What The UN’s Latest Climate Report Means For Colorado, Colorado Public Radio. August 9, 2021.

How years of fighting every wildfire helped fuel the Western megafires of today, The Conversation. August 2, 2021.

State of the science on western wildfires, forests and climate change, UW News. August 2, 2021.

US heatwave: Could US and Canada see the worst wildfires yet? Reality Check Team, BBC. July 13, 2021.

States spend big as water levels fall, raising risks for catastrophic fires, The Hill. June 29, 2021.

Software, Data Products

All software and data products generated by this project are publicly available. The code and documentation that we have developed for calculating fire indices in support of climate projections is publicly available on GitHub. Visualizations appear in both published papers and above on this page.

New research by Prof. Ann Bostrom on the NHERI Natural Hazards Reconnaissance Facility (RAPID) published in Frontiers in Built Environment

Prof. Ann Bostrom has worked with Joe Wartman, Jeff Berman and the other co-authors on these teams to help develop the RAPID facility for disaster reconnaissance research from the time NSF awarded the funding for the RAPID in 2016, up to the point at which it began operations in 2018.

In Needs, Challenges, and Strategic Approaches for Natural Hazards and Disaster Reconnaissance the authors describe the vision for disaster reconnaissance research that guided the development of the facility. As the abstract notes in its conclusion, “Continued progress in natural hazard reconnaissance requires adaptation of new, strategic approaches that acquire and integrate data over a range of temporal, spatial, and social scales across disciplines.”

Another paper, Natural Hazards Reconnaissance with the NHERI RAPID Facility describes how the RAPID Facility is transforming reconnaissance methods following natural disasters in collaboration with the NSF-funded CONVERGE Center, by supporting and advancing the integration of data across disciplines, not only through advanced instrumentation and data handling, but also through considerations of data formats, ethics, and questions about appropriate standardization of disaster reconnaissance data.

Alison Cullen receives $2M NSF grant to study ‘megafires’

Alison Cullen, professor and interim dean of the Evans School of Public Policy & Governance at the University of Washington, has received a $2 million grant from the National Science Foundation to study simultaneous “megafires” and the future management of wildfire risk.

Prof. Ann Bostrom to Join NSF AI Institute for Research on Trustworthy AI in Weather, Climate, And Coastal Oceanography

The NSF AI Institute for Research on Trustworthy AI in Weather, Climate, and Coastal Oceanography assembles researchers in machine learning, atmospheric and ocean science and risk communication to develop user-driven, trustworthy AI that addresses pressing concerns in weather, climate and coastal hazards prediction.

“…The risk communication research team will examine how AI information influences trust and use of AI over time by decision makers in ecological and water resource management, weather forecasting and emergency management,” says Prof. Bostrom. “It’s an exciting opportunity to advance fundamental research on mental models and perceptions of AI in environmental science contexts that have critical consequences for all of us.”