Projected Fire Danger (ERC-Ensemble) Lionshead Fire (OR) comparing 1980-2010 and 2040-2070
Projected fire danger for the approximate location of the 2020 Lionshead Fire in Oregon. The energy release component (ERC), a fire danger index, is calculated with the National Fire Danger Rating System fuel model G for a model ensemble of 13 regional climate simulations. The ensemble data for average and maximum ERC values have each been distilled down into 5 values for each day of the year: the model ensemble minimum, 25th percentile, median, 75th percentile, and maximum, which communicate the uncertainty associated with the model ensemble. The reference period (1980-2010) is shown with blue lines and blue-shaded interquartile range (IQR), while the midcentury future period (2040-2070) is shown with red lines and red-shaded IQR. The model ensemble averages of the 90th percentile of the fire season (defined here as May-October) are also shown for the reference and future periods. The data shown come from NA-CORDEX. This visualization was made as part of NSF Growing Convergence Project 2019762.
