2040-2070 Median Annual Days Above Historical 97th Percentile ERC
Projected change in days with extreme fire weather between 1980-2010 to 2040-2070. The projected number of days with expected extreme fire weather for 2040-2070. The number of days with extreme fire weather is defined as the median number of days per year that the fire index ‘energy release component’ (ERC) exceeds the 97th percentile of the ERC distribution in the reference period 1980-2010, calculated specifically for each gridcell. This shows an ensemble of 13 regional climate model simulations, labeled with the regional climate model and the global climate model that drove the regional simulation. Warm colors indicate an increase in the number of extreme fire weather days, while cool colors indicate a decrease in the number of extreme fire weather days, as shown in the color bar below the map. Note that 3% of 365 is approximately 11, so a value of 11 days corresponds to no change in fire weather extreme days. The data shown come from the NA-CORDEX data archive. This visualization was made as part of NSF Growing Convergence Project 2019762.
