Projected Fire Danger East Troublesome Fire (CO) comparing 1970-2000 and 2040-2070
Projected fire danger for the location of the East Troublesome Fire west of Fort Collins and Boulder, CO. Various fire season (defined here as May-Oct) percentile thresholds, average, and maximum fire index values for the energy release component (ERC) are displayed from the regional climate model (RCM) RegCM4 which is driven by the global climate model (GCM) MPI-ESM-LR. These ERC values are for a single grid cell in the regional climate model that encompasses the ignition site of the 200,000-acre area burned in the East Troublesome Fire. The projections of past percentiles, average, and maximum are in blue, while projections of future percentiles, average, and maximum are in red. The pocket card compares the reference period (1970-2000) to a midcentury period (2040-2070) to show projected changes by midcentury for this particular model at this location. The data shown comes from NA-CORDEX. Note that this is a single model that is part of a larger ensemble, and should not be solely relied upon. This visualization is included in the paper Cullen et al. “Growing convergence research for proactive risk management through co-produced climate and wildfire simultaneity decision support which is currently submitted to Risk Analysis. This visualization was made as part of NSF Growing Convergence Project 2019762.
