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Evans School of Public Policy & Governance

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Projected Fire Danger (ERC-Ensemble) East Troublesome Fire (CO) comparing 1980-2010 and 2040-2070

Projected fire danger at the approximate location of the 2020 East Troublesome Fire in Colorado. The energy release component (ERC), a fire danger index, is calculated with the National Fire Danger Rating System fuel model G for a model ensemble of 13 regional climate simulations. The ensemble data for average and maximum ERC values have each been distilled down into 5 values for each day of the year: the model ensemble minimum, 25th percentile, median, 75th percentile, and maximum, which communicate the uncertainty associated with the model ensemble. The reference period (1980-2010) is shown with blue lines and blue-shaded interquartile range (IQR), while the midcentury future period (2040-2070) is shown with red lines and red-shaded IQR. The model ensemble averages of the 90th percentile of the fire season (defined here as May-October) are also shown for the reference and future periods. The data shown come from NA-CORDEX. This visualization was made as part of NSF Growing Convergence Project 2019762.

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Acres Burned and Number of Fires in the United States (1983-2021)

This figure shows the number of acres burned and number of fires in the United States for each year 1983-2021. The number of acres burned is shown in red, while number of fires is shown in black. The graph depicts data points for each measure in each year, as well as a trendline for each over the entire period. Expected acreage burned increased from around 2 million acres in early 1980s to over 8 million acres in present. The number of fires are shown in black, with linear trendline which is fairly constant at around 63,000 annual fires over last ~40 years. Note increasing annual variability in acres burned in recent years, indicating that wildfire activity is more unpredictable. The data are from the National Interagency Fire Center. This visualization was made as part of NSF Growing Convergence Project 2019762.

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1000+ acre fires in all US Regions in all calendar months comparing 1984-1993 and 2010-2019

Median number of fires 1000+ acres within each Geographic Area Coordination Center (GACC) in each calendar month, comparing 1984-1993 to 2010-2019. The median number of fires is determined in a 30 day rolling window. Color is used to indicate GACC according to the key at right. Data on simultaneous wildfire occurrence come from the Monitoring Trends and Burn Severity (MTBS) project. This visualization was made as part of NSF Growing Convergence Project 2019762.

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75th percentile fires in each US Region for each calendar month comparing 1984-1993 and 2010-2019

Median number of 75th percentile fires in each US region for each calendar month, comparing the decades 1984-1993 and 2010-2019. The 75th percentile of the local fire size distribution in each Geographic Area Coordination Center (GACC) is determined for the historic reference period 1984-1993. The median number of 75th percentile fires is determined using a 30 day rolling window. Color is used to indicate GACC according to the key at right. Data on simultaneous wildfire occurrence come from the Monitoring Trends and Burn Severity (MTBS) project. This visualization was made as part of NSF Growing Convergence Project 2019762.

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Fires in each US Region for each calendar month comparing 1984-1993 and 2010-2019

Median number of fires in each Geographic Area Coordination Center (GACC) in each calendar month - comparing 1984-1993 and 2010-2019. Each row of charts corresponds to a different fire size. ALF represents all large fires 1,000+ acres, VLF represents 75th percentile fires, and ELF represents 90th percentile fires. Fire sizes are binned using percentile cutoffs within each GACC over the entire period to determine fire size categories. Color indicates GACC according to the key on the right. Data on simultaneous wildfire occurrence come from the Monitoring Trends and Burn Severity (MTBS) project. This visualization was made as part of NSF Growing Convergence Project 2019762.

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